Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-15 1.600010 1.812750 2.039080 2.297344 2.583423 2.890137 3.243379
2024-12-22 1.323787 1.616909 1.948772 2.350608 2.822184 3.356168 4.004598
2024-12-29 1.161333 1.521186 1.952599 2.503763 3.184628 3.993286 5.021031
2025-01-05 0.952231 1.339491 1.831379 2.494183 3.355026 4.425464 5.845994
2025-01-12 0.799276 1.206138 1.752862 2.528142 3.583806 4.953729 6.845246
2025-01-19 0.663385 1.074577 1.659063 2.530514 3.772638 5.451496 7.857863
2025-01-26 0.579763 1.004293 1.640365 2.633636 4.109497 6.178516 9.244176
2025-02-02 0.502803 0.931396 1.607893 2.713020 4.422067 6.902643 10.694635
2025-02-09 0.429741 0.851972 1.554111 2.753344 4.681575 7.575445 12.132893
2025-02-16 0.369933 0.784230 1.509177 2.801591 4.958021 8.297728 13.705209
2025-02-23 0.305285 0.694940 1.414254 2.754850 5.078006 8.792230 14.975743
2025-03-02 0.246233 0.603772 1.301267 2.661230 5.109251 9.148719 16.060354
2025-03-09 0.208149 0.549207 1.251319 2.680925 5.348741 9.883309 17.842209
2025-03-16 0.172299 0.490921 1.184390 2.660239 5.516195 10.516196 19.515928
2025-03-23 0.152548 0.465415 1.180521 2.761942 5.918994 11.586701 22.007328
2025-03-30 0.123488 0.408771 1.099513 2.696649 6.001122 12.105390 23.601166
2025-04-06 0.103184 0.369233 1.049343 2.688332 6.192512 12.836019 25.621134
2025-04-13 0.085008 0.329872 0.991684 2.654789 6.329206 13.477218 27.529663
2025-04-20 0.074997 0.312047 0.983771 2.732100 6.701473 14.588688 30.367059
2025-04-27 0.065471 0.292649 0.968053 2.788968 7.036557 15.654893 33.193232
2025-05-04 0.056017 0.270080 0.939156 2.809659 7.295116 16.590893 35.836534
2025-05-11 0.048321 0.251025 0.916194 2.841761 7.582295 17.605358 38.695546
2025-05-18 0.039366 0.223092 0.860657 2.780816 7.649811 18.176963 40.729367